BLC week 4 events and discussion

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BLC week 4 events and discussion

Post by Luke on Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:05 pm

*If you're searching Russian fights on Youtube search the Russian spelling*

Fight Nights: Sochi
Fight Exclusive Night 8
UFC 190

Fight Nights: Sochi

Vitaly Minakov  vs.  Adam Maciejewski
Rasul Mirzaev  vs.  Ronni Gomes
Oleg Borisov  vs.  Tomáš Deák
Kurban Gadzhiev  vs.  Asulan Toktarbaev
M. Mokhnatkin  vs.  Donald Njatah Nya
Sergey Pavlovich  vs.  Vladimir Daineko
Marif Piraev  vs.  Grigoriy Kichigin
David Khachatryan  vs.  Sultan Aburazakov
Ayub Gimbatov  vs.  K. Skrelya
Dmitry Bikrev  vs.  Georgiy Kichigin
Artur Bagautinov  vs.  Oskar Dolchin
Ashot Pashyan  vs.  Artem Ostyakov
Sevak Avagyan  vs.  Bair Shtepin
G. Engibaryan  vs.  A. Podlesniy

Fight Exclusive Night 8

Roman Szymański  vs.  Paweł Kiełek
Paweł Żelazowski  vs.  Artur Piotrowski
A. Odzimkowski  vs.  Emil Weber Meek
Akop Szostak  vs.  Łukasz Borowski
Rafał Lewoń  vs.  Michał Golasiński
Ireneusz Cholewa  vs.  Maciej Różański
Mateusz Rębecki  vs.  Jacek Kreft
Sebastian Kotwica  vs.  Łukasz Demczur
K. Pietraszek  vs.  Marcin Wójcik

UFC 190

Ronda Rousey  vs.  Bethe Correia
Maurício Rua  vs.  A. Nogueira
Fernando Bruno  vs.  Glaico França
Dileno Lopes  vs.  Reginaldo Vieira
Stefan Struve  vs.  A. Nogueira
Antônio Silva  vs.  Soa Palelei
Cláudia Gadelha  vs.  Jessica Aguilar
Demian Maia  vs.  Neil Magny
Patrick Cummins  vs.  Rafael Cavalcante
Warlley Alves  vs.  Nordine Taleb
Iuri Alcântara  vs.  Leandro Issa
Vitor Miranda  vs.  Clint Hester
Hugo Viana  vs.  Guido Cannetti


Rousimar Palhares  vs.  Jake Shields
Marlon Moraes  vs.  Sheymon Moraes
Jimmy Spicuzza  vs.  Islam Mamedov
A. Nurmagomedov  vs.  Jorge Moreno
Mike Kyle  vs.  Clifford Starks
Gil Guardado  vs.  Pete Martin
Cory Hendricks  vs.  Julio Hinojosa
Donavon Frelow  vs.  Carlos Garcia
Jimmy Jones  vs.  Marco Simmons
Jake Heun  vs.  Davin Clark

Last edited by Luke on Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:42 pm; edited 7 times in total

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Re: BLC week 4 events and discussion

Post by Luke on Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:50 pm

I will edit as I go:

Vitaly Minakov  vs.  Adam Maciejewski----------KO-1
Rasul Mirzaev  vs.  Ronni Gomes----------------KO-1
Oleg Borisov  vs.  Tomáš Deák-----------------KO-1
Kurban Gadzhiev  vs.  Asulan Toktarbaev-------Dec-3
M. Mokhnatkin  vs.  Donald Njatah Nya---------Sub-2
Sergey Pavlovich  vs.  Vladimir Daineko---------KO-1
Marif Piraev  vs.  Grigoriy Kichigin---------------KO-1
David Khachatryan  vs.  Sultan Aburazakov-----Sub-1
Ayub Gimbatov  vs.  K. Skrelya----------------Sub-1
Dmitry Bikrev  vs.  Georgiy Kichigin-------------KO-1
Artur Bagautinov  vs.  Oskar Dolchin-----------Dec-3
Ashot Pashyan  vs.  Artem Ostyakov----------Sub-1
Sevak Avagyan  vs.  Bair Shtepin--------------KO-1
G. Engibaryan  vs.  A. Podlesniy---------------Sub-2 or Dec-3

Vitaly Minakov  vs.  Adam Maciejewski-Adam is a good wrestler but overall he isn't that great.Minakov did not look great in his last fight vs Kongo but for me the safest pick is Vitaly KO-1.Vitaly should win without too much problems,just not sure what round.Vitaly Minakov-KO-1

Rasul Mirzaev vs.  Ronni Gomes-Gomes is a talented striker but should be in over his head here against Rasul who's most known for killing that guy,but is a great fighter.Mirzaev-KO-1

Oleg Borisov  vs.  Tomáš Deák-Should be a decent fight Deak is on a run but Oleg should be too good.Possible decision here but Oleg hits so hard I gotta go KO-1.Reminds me of Chad Mendes a bit.Borisov-KO-1

Kurban Gadzhiev  vs.  Asulan Toktarbaev-Gadzhiev is 9-0 or whatever but vs bums.He's a talented guy but really nothing special.He's not really great at anything but has the athletic ability to become very good and shows pretty solid cardio.Another thing that's easier to maintain though vs lower level fighters.His tdd is most worrysome,doesn't get off his back well,jumps for too many guillotines and isn't that great in scrambles.

Clearly facing the better competition,Toktarbaev comes from that awesome Alash crew in Kazakhstan full of killers.With that said Tok isn't that great either.He's a bit inactive (till he get's going) and when he does throw,like many fighters from that area,he's quite wild and his wrestling is more of reacting wrestling as opposed to shooting nice technical shots,chaining td's etc. so he's a bit wild in most elements of fighting.

Physically I think Tok is more explosive,one of those guys that are very hard to handle and usually end up on top in scrambles and I think a bit of the opposite of Kurban,atleast if he was facing higher level competition.I don't think Tok has a big advantage in technical wrestling but in his scrambles and wrestling instinct I think he does.I think Tok is more diverse,unpredictable and explosive.I think stylistically it slightly favors Tok who will make it a sloppy fight and end up on top more in scrambles but it's a bit of a toss up imo.I think it'll maybe go to who's improved the most and those Alash guys have a lot of momentum lately so i'll roll the dice that way.Toktarbaev-Dec-3

M. Mokhnatkin  vs.  Donald Njatah Nya-Mok is more of a striker,pretty slick and technical,good reflexes and timing on his td's when he does actually go for them.Not a great penetrating double but his timing makes up for it a bit, especially up at LHW where people are slower.He's a little too patient for my liking which allows people to stay in the fight and I have seen him do some dumb shit like when he pulled guard off a failed td in the 3rd vs Prochazka which could have been what led to the draw.My pet peeve lol.

Nya is a can crusher for sure.Out of his 8 wins only 1 guy currently has a win and none had a win when he fought them.Nya is basically just a physically gifted guy,he does have nice reflexes and ok tdd but there really isn't much to him.My issues in this fight is Mok's pace and pressure or lack there of which could give Nya chances he really shouldn't get.Other issue is I don't know how Mok approaches this fight,it very well could be a lacluster decision but I think he'll find success everywhere he goes and especially if he works his submissions.He'll be the bigger more experiences grappler and with his semi light hands i'm leaning more toward a submission.Especially considering Nya's been subbed twice and never ko'd.I really don't like going decision on LHW's,I do of course and it's not a big deal,but I think Mok should get a finish and Nya has mediocre cardio.Mokhnatkin-Sub-2.

Sergey Pavlovich  vs.  Vladimir Daineko-John Alessio's russian HW doppleganger has no issues pulling the trigger like John has these last few years.Guy's a killer and so far looks like a legit HW prospect with nasty hand and a wretling background to boot.Vlad is no slouch himself,he has pretty quick hands,nice movement and solid awareness on the feet coupled with decent tdd.He has some nice basics but he doesn't seem to be anything special at all.Pavlovich-KO-1.

Marif Piraev  vs.  Grigoriy Kichigin-Piraev should pick him apart,he has nice well rounded striking and should wear him down with leg kicks and pressure.I have never been overly impressed with Kichigan,not that he's been I think I just expected more from him.I think Piraev will end it later but it's hard not to go with KO-1,could be sub-1 too.Piraev-KO-1

David Khachatryan  vs.  Sultan Aburazakov-For only one fight and no wins Sultan is pretty damn good but this fight just makes absolutely no sense.I guess that's why it was put together David's opponent got hurt.David has a few ko's recently and 4 altogether but only 1 over a decent opponent.If he knows Sultan I don't think he'll try to show off his striking,i'll go sub-1.Got a feeling it's later but gotta go with stats and of course only seeing one fight from Sultan.Khachatryan-Sub-1

Ayub Gimbatov  vs.  K. Skrelya-I don't know Skrelya,from his picture he looks horrible,his 2 wins the guys are 0-7,also stopped twice very fast.Ayub is a badass..could be ko-1 but i'll go with Sub.Gimbatov-Sub-1

Dmitry Bikrev  vs.  Georgiy Kichigin-I can't tell how good Bikrev is,the only fight I saw was his last one where he broke his wrist in the very beginning and then was just on the defense.He beat a pretty solid guy who's 15-7 in his 2nd to last fight and 2nd pro fight so clearly a talented guy.He took him out in a minute and a half.From what I could tell for the tiny bit before the injury he looked solid.First right hand he landed he landed it sideways and was obviously hurt bad but stuck it out for 5 minutes to the dr. stoppage.

George has garbage tdd and runs for td's across the cage like a zombie lol.He's kinda slick and can lock stuff up ok but he's really not that good overall.He's super still in everything he does but he's sticky and that helps his sub game.It's kind of a gamble but I really don't think George is that good and Bikrev seems more talented from the little I have seen.How does Bikrev look after a year off?I have no clue,maybe he's better,maybe he's not but I just don't think George is very good.If the guys improved I think he beats him up no problem.Dmitry Bikrev-KO-1

Artur Bagautinov  vs.  Oskar Dolchin-First thing that jumps out is Oscars 6 wins consist of opponents with a combined 1-7 record (getting 4 decision).Then he lost to Ruslan who's a stud.Ali's little brother Artur is similar to Ali when he started but not quite as good.Real wild striking and leaves himself wide open coming in.His wrestling doesn't seem that great either.With that said Oscar's striking is probably just as wild (less firepower) but his defense is a little more sound.Oscars wrestling isn't great but doesn't seem too bad either,possibly something Artur can take advantage of.

A real toss up imo but I have to imagine Artur has made some improvements having not fought in 10 months.I think he can get td's and be more dangerous on the feet.Neither guy is anything special yet and pretty similar levels imo.I'm going Artur that I watched a little more of Oscar his tdd really does kinda suck,he just folds.Arturs wrestling isn't great but should be the difference if he uses it.On the feet it could be a wash.Neither guy with great cardio.Bagautinov-Dec-3

Ashot Pashyan  vs.  Artem Ostyakov-Ashot hasn't fought in over 3 years,his last loss was to a guy that is 2-4 right now but lost to all killers.I actually watched that fight and his opponent was pretty awesome for a 2-4 guy.Ashot kinda suck,his stiking is pretty terrible and he folds to his back pretty easy but you can tell his grappling is still quite good.I'm not sure what kind of improvements he has made in his 3 years off or if he's worse but either way it's hard to pick an 0-0 guy (who I can't even find on facebook or anything) over a guy that's 8-3 with 7 finishes even if he hasn't fought in 3 years.Anyone know anything about Artem?Usually I can find Sambo or something if they competed in something else.Anyway Pashyan-Sub-1.

Sevak Avagyan  vs.  Bair Shtepin-Saw an ammy fight of Sevak from a few years ago,i'm not sure which one he was but they were both horrible.Bair isn't gret but he's pretty solid.In his last fight that went 7 or so minutes I only saw him go for I think 1 td so i'm going to go KO.He did finish the fight with a beautiful flying knee he covered a ton of distance for.Bair Shtepin-KO-1

G. Engibaryan  vs.  A. Podlesniy-Right off the bat I notice Eng has a split loss to the guy Ali's little brother had a draw with.Eng shows some pretty nice striking,decent jab,nice fast kicks and a nice fast double leg but little level change,no drive and little power in it,just wouldn't commit or just doesn't have a decent wrestling background.He throws a lot of nice stuff but just doesn't seem like anything has much on it.After more footage he actually has a nice effective single leg though and works for it well.I actually think he beat Vadeem Basiv who Ali's little brother had a draw with,although it was a 2 rounder and Eng kinda fell apart a bit at the end,obviously not the best cardio.

Pod seems pretty solid right off the bat but pretty spazzy,good raw skills but very little energy conserving.He explodes then ends up on his back and lays there.Really up and down,certainly the ability to finish a night but then he kinda sucks in between those explosions.He also sucks in scrambles and stuff.All 4 (1 unlisted ammy) fights were since march I can't really expect much improvements really.I'll take the more well rounded fighter that fights smarter.Possibly Sub-2 but for now Engibaryan-Dec-3

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Re: BLC week 4 events and discussion

Post by Luke on Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:25 pm

Fight Exclusive Night 8
Roman Szymański  vs.  Paweł Kiełek----------KO-1
Paweł Żelazowski  vs.  Artur Piotrowski-------Sub-1
A. Odzimkowski  vs.  Emil Weber Meek--------KO-2
Akop Szostak  vs.  Łukasz Borowski----------KO-1
Rafał Lewoń  vs.  Michał Golasiński-----------Dec-3
Mateusz Rębecki  vs.  Jacek Kreft-----------Sub-1
Sebastian Kotwica  vs.  Łukasz Demczur-----KO-1
K. Pietraszek  vs.  Marcin Wójcik------------KO-1/Sub-1
Maciej Różański  vs.  Alex O'Toole-----------Sub-1

Roman Szymański  vs.  Paweł Kiełek-Roman's stand up isn't really a threat at all he's almost a pure grappler.He has pretty solid td's and good control but isn't too good at catching subs.His cardio doesn't seem that great either.Kind of a striker vs grappler match and I wouldn't be surprised if Roman pulls it off.Pawel tdd isn't bad at all and he's good at getting up but he's not great either.Also Pawel strikes very well and calculated when people stand with him but against grapplers he kind of turns into more of a flailer which is the last thing you should do.Considering that I give Roman a pretty good chance at winning this.He was getting controlled almost the whole time by Mateusz Rębecki before ko'ing him in the 2nd off of a failed Rebecki leglock.Pawel will be a good bit bigger and that should help him fight off td's and impose his will a little more and I think Pawel's the safer pick but I think the fight could go either way.Roman can get a little lackluster in there and Pawel could catch him that's another thing that gives me confidence in Pawel but it's not much.I guess i'll just spring for KO-1 cause he has finished all his opponents and Roman has been finished in both his losses.I feel like it'll go out of the first but KO-1 is probably the best bet.Tough fight,Paweł Kiełek-KO-1

Paweł Żelazowski  vs.  Artur Piotrowski-Pawel has a pretty nasty right hand but his striking is a bit wild,his strongpoint is his td's,nice gnp and good control.Artur's only loss is by ko to ufc's Pawlak.Neither guy has fought much and Artur not in almost 2 years so it's hard to know what he'll look like.Everyone is going Pawel KO but idk,he only has 2 and I saw one it was from gnp off of back mount where the guy wasn't giving up the choke so he pounded a bit and the ref stopped it kinda early imo.Artur has pretty terrible stand up and if Pawel only tries to keep it standing I think he'll get the ko.Artur is good on the ground but he's really flimsy so I see Pawel getting on top a lot or reversing when he gets on his back.Bottom line for me is i'm taking Pawel and i'm taking him by sub cause neither of these guys want to stand so I think someone get's caught on the mat.KO is what everyone's taking and I think it's a good possibility too but i'm going to roll the dice on sub.Żelazowski-Sub-1

A. Odzimkowski  vs.  Emil Weber Meek-Odzi was doing well vs Mickael Lebout but pretty much went 100% and that's why he did pretty well and that's why he pretty much gassed in the first and hardly even defended the choke with seconds left in the first (imo).Pretty sad.Talented guy but those are big red flags.Real strong guy though,heavy grappling,td's and control but I really question his cardio.I haven't seen enough of Meek to really know how good he is but from what I saw (while beating bums) he's a bit of a destroyer.Not sure what happened with his last fight I think he won and it got overturned,I see him listed as the winner on some results pages.Anyway with my limited knowledge of this fight i'm going Meek KO-2 cause I think Odzi will slow down but I really don't know who wins or how Meek's grappling is.Meek-KO-2

Akop Szostak  vs.  Łukasz Borowski-They both seem pretty horrible,I don't think Akop could powerwalk for 15 minutes and Lukasz is a fat 200lb HW.They fought the same terrible 2-14 guy,Akop mauled him with ugly donkey kong punches and Lukasz counter punched to a 20 second ko.Watching Lukasz other fights he's clearly a martial artist,he's not very good,but he's got nice timing,decent hands and kicks and basically he's a proven fighter while Akop is just a bodybuilder.I think Akop will either knock Lukasz out in a minute or be dead tired and Lukasz fucks him up after.Akop doesn't even know how to throw a punch but jeesus the guy is 5'8" 245.This is an absolute toss up to me and when it's an absolute toss up i'll just go with the 94% guy to be safe,unfortunately.Szostak-KO-1

Rafał Lewoń  vs.  Michał Golasiński-Rafal is the shorter guy but usually fights at MW,he's stiff in his striking but very strong.He's pretty mediocre overall but his strength could win the fight getting some td's,top control,holding him against the cage etc. especially considering this fight is at WW and Michal isn't a big WW at all.Rafal went the distance with Abu Azaitar which is kind of an accoplishment alone at this level.He didn't do great but he didn't get blown out of the water either and Abu is pretty damn good and dangerous.

Michal will be the much cleaner striker,but I haven't been able to see any very recent footage so it's hard to guage him correctly or his tdd cause I haven't seen him fight a heavy grappler.This is another really difficult fight,Michal seems pretty well rounded and will be faster and more fluid but I think i'll have to go with Lewon by decision considering everything.Especially cause Michal might actually initiate a lot of the grappling.If he fights smart I think he might win.I kind of want to take Michal but when i'm undecided I usually go with the bigger stronger wrestler.Actually after more footage he did get wrestled for a lot of the Rafał Nowasielski fight.Long ago but not much to go on.Rafał Lewoń-Dec-3

Mateusz Rębecki  vs.  Jacek Kreft-Rebecki is obviously good at leglocks and his grappling looks real tight.Not much as far as striking but he throws some heavy shots,just mostly one at a time.He was doing very well vs Pawel Kielek but gassed BAD and got ko'd cold by a few hammerfists while commiting to a leglock.Kreft is good on the ground too,has the better stand up and probably won't gas like Rebecki but I think Rebecki will have a pretty good strength advantage and that will help in the grappling heavy bout that I expect.Another toss up fight for me.I think Rebecki is the stronger wrestler and could get the sub in the first 2 rounds or Kreft could either catch him especially after he gasses or win the 2nd half of the fight for a decision.I have to go with Rebecki here,I think he'll be on top more and after watching Kreft get tapped again by Ziolkowski (grappling recent mma loss in '14) and how quick he tapped to Szymanki's guillotine I think Rebecki is the safer pick.Another toss up though imo.Mateusz Rębecki-Sub-1

Sebastian Kotwica  vs.  Łukasz Demczur-Kotwica-KO-1

K. Pietraszek  vs.  Marcin Wójcik-With Pie's Wandy wanna be style I think Marcin will look to get it down to eliminate the chance of getting caught which imo is mostly likely Pie's only chance.If it even get's to the end of the first he'll probably quit again,which worries me about taking sub.I could really go either way as far as KO or Sub but I see a sub for Marcin.I kinda see it going to the 2nd and ending there but I can't count on Pie getting off his stool for the 2nd.Maybe KO-1 but Wójcik-Sub-1

Maciej Różański  vs.  Alex O'Toole-Alex isn't a terrible 2-2 but he should get submitted and is on short notice.Różański-Sub-1

Last edited by Luke on Thu Jul 30, 2015 5:38 pm; edited 4 times in total

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Re: BLC week 4 events and discussion

Post by Toll on Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:33 am

Great breakdowns and a HUGE THANKS for putting this all together!


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Re: BLC week 4 events and discussion

Post by Luke on Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:27 am

Toll wrote:Great breakdowns and a HUGE THANKS for putting this all together!

my pleasure!.I know it'll probably just be us in here and I don't expect any breakdowns (picks though would be good and i'll list my problem fights for the week) but I actually like writing some breakdowns for whatever reason it helps me process my thoughts.I'd like to get a few guys in here,I think it would be nice for us to throw around our problem fights,and I usually breakdown of the lesser known fights/events and tough bigger fights to pick.

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